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Progressive Conservatives in Majority Territory in New Brunswick Poll: 338Canada

Curated by Claudia Shannon / Research Scientist / ishonest

New Brunswick Premier Blaine Higgs talks with journalists after calling an election following a visit with Lt.-Gov Brenda Murphy at Government House in Fredericton on Monday, Aug. 17, 2020. (Andrew Vaughan/CP)

One-third of all respondents answered they intended to vote for Blaine Higgs’ PC party. The NB Liberals stand in second place, five points behind the PC party, with 28 per cent of decided voters. The New Brunswick Green Party, which won 12 per cent of the popular vote and three seats in the 2018 general election, gets the support of 17 per cent of all respondents.

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The People’s Alliance of New Brunswick, which held three seats and the balance of power until dissolution, gets six per cent. We must note that the PANB will only field candidates in 37 of the province’s 49 electoral districts. Ten of 12 districts without PANB candidates are located in northern New Brunswick.*

Among decided and leaning voters, the PC party has the support of 38 per cent of respondents, a six-point lead over the Liberals. The Green Party stands in third place with 19 per cent—a level of support which could potentially mean net seat gains for the Greens compared to 2018. Naturally, one must use caution when using regional sub-samples, because the margin of error of the data grows as the samples shrinks, but Mainstreet measures a tight race between the PC party and Liberals in Moncton (38 per cent a piece). In the capital region of Fredericton, the race is solely between the Progressive Conservatives (42 per cent) and the Greens (32 per cent).

We should also stress that the Greens, should they improve their popular vote share into the high teens or even low 20s, could potentially double their 2018 total of three seats and hold the balance of power in a PC-led government. However, we do need more numbers to confirm whether the Greens are indeed on the rise in New Brunswick.

We will continue to track the New Brunswick numbers until election day on Sept. 14. For a complete breakdown of this projection, visit the 338Canada New Brunswick page.

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CORRECTION, Aug. 31, 2020: An earlier version of this post incorrectly stated that all 12 districts with no People’s Alliance of New Brunswick candidates were in northern New Brunswick. In fact, 10 of 12 ridings with no PANB candidates are in that region.

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